Bogieblog

Biggest Storm of Season (so far)

We got snow Saturday thru Sunday morning. We got icing thru a lot of the day Sunday, then it turned back to snow overnight. With all the sleet/freezing rain, I elected not to do any clean up until the storm was over. I had already arranged a PTO day for Monday, anticipating this scenario.

Early Monday morning the winds started to pick up. So measuring the depth of the snow/ice would have been useless. Some of the pathways that I keep clear had about 20" in them, but I'm sure that drifting had a lot to do with it. I'm guessing I got about a foot in actuality. Since the wind was supposed to really start honing around 10am, I got out early to clean up and finished up around 9am.

I had arranged for the berm from the road plows to be plowed by an individual. I'm glad I decided to do that since during clean up of the driveway, the last 5-7' were packed so tightly that it would have been way more work than I wanted to do. After the guy plowed out the berm Monday afternoon, I still had to tackle around the mailbox. That took me quite a while and a lot of oomph and strategizing how I would break it up enough to blow the mess out of the way.

Picture from the news Monday evening. Antrim is 2 miles down my road, and Sunapee is about 7 miles from me as the crow flies.

See that white strip just above Jaffrey? Yeah, I'm in that section and can attest that I have over 2' of snow pack (the ground hasn't been snow free for quite some time). And, most of the snows we have received have ended up with icing events so it got packed down pretty tightly.

We've gotten a break since that storm. We had been getting storms every 3 days or so, but nothing since Monday. However, there hasn't been any melting going on. Even my roof hasn't dumped or had much melting since prior to the storm BEFORE this last one.

I have never had a month so bad for solar production before; the following screen shot tells the whole story (the one, and only clear roof day was 2/7/2025). The solar production showing from yesterday, is from 2-3 panels on the west side that are mostly clear (there are 6 panels on that side).

To give you an idea of how bad this is, my solar production for February from previous years

My lowest solar production month ever was November 2022, at 114 kwh, which is when the panels were installed. In that case, production did not start until the middle of the month (11/16/22), when they finally hooked up the new meter and gave me the okay to flip the switch. The next worst months were January 2023 & 2024 where total production was 116kwh each.

I'm hoping the roof will clear with the warmer weather we are supposed to have the next couple of days, but we'll see.

March 2024 Solar Report

In comparing solar production from March 2023 to March 2024, they look pretty much the same at 0.7kwh more produced in 2024 than in 2023..

But, in looking at it more closely, you can tell it was cloudier during March of 2024 than in 2023. I know that doesn't seem to jive, until you see that there were 3 days in 2023 with absolutely no production and two days with nearly no production (all from snow cover / power outage). taking the monthly production and dividing by 28 (days with at least some production), the daily average is 20.025 kwh / day

2024 only had 1 day with absolutely no production due to snow cover. Taking the monthly production and dividing by 30 days (days with some production), the daily average is 18.713 kwh/day.

Extrapolating further, if each of those non-production days had produced the average for that month, March 2023 would have produced a total of 620.775 kwh and March 2024 would have produced 580.103 kwh - a difference of 40.672 kwh.

I realize all that is meaningless in the long run, but does tell me that I wasn't crazy for thinking it was a cloudier March than usual.

Eclipse 2024

Monday, April 8, NH was in the path of the total eclipse. Unfortunately, my area is not in the path of totality, but I was at 95-96% range. A gajillion people from both NH and other parts of the USA headed up to the northern part of the state to view this celestial event, but I was not one of them. (source for graphic below)

Fortunately, the event was scheduled to occur shortly before 3:30pm, and the skies were for the most part clear (for a change - sun has been hard to come by since last year). I logged off work a little early and sat in front of the shed to view the event - using appropriate solar glasses of course.

Unfortunately, I didn't think to study how to get my phone or camera to capture the eclipse. After taking a couple of pics that just showed a big red/yellow disk, I decided to just give up and watch the show.

Even at the relatively little light we experienced at the greatest coverage of the sun, it was still quite bright out. Shadows were still crisp and no wildlife showed signs of calling it a night. Part of that may be because it was literally still lighter than the heavily overcast skies we have experienced regularly.

My solar array did show a cool progression. The moon started sliding over the sun at about 2:30, and had completely passed the sun about 4:30. Production is recorded in 15 minute intervals:

 

Compared to an overcast day, on 4/10/2024, which at times gave the same low input of 0.3kwh as the fullest part of the eclipse my area experienced.

All-in-all, cool to see.

Solar Monthly Comparisons Between Years

With just slightly over a year of solar under my belt, I thought I would do a comparison.

December of 2022 Versus 2023. It was interesting that I had more production in 2023 (the blue numbers in the pictures). At the same time, there were more snow storms in 2022, so there were 3 zero production days and 2 very low production days (some of the panels were still snow covered).

In 2023 there no zero production days and 3 days with a slight snow cover hampering production (which attests to the plethora of heavily overcast days we have had this season)

 

Comparing January 2023 with January 2024

This was interesting as the total production was basically equal between the two years (116.7kwh versus 116.9 kwh).

 

If you study the pictures, which I'm sure you haven't, the energy I've imported this season sky-rocketed compared to last season. There is a simple explanation for that; last season I used the main floor pellet stove exclusively for heating. I had lots of pellets I'd gotten for cheap, and the electric prices were sky high, so I used the cheapest method. I still use the basement pellet stove as that is the only heater down there.

This year, pellet prices have rocketed up, and electric prices have dropped. I had plenty of credited dollars with the electric company from overproduction during the summer. So, it has been cheaper to use the mini-split on the main floor for heat. I did use the P43 for 4-5 days when it was frigid and the wind was blowing, but for the most part the P43 has been resting with occasional use to give a shot of warmth on mornings I wash my hair (doubles as a heater and a blow drier - LOL).

And despite the screaming for people to go all electric (for whatever reason - doesn't matter and I'm not getting into the politics/beliefs), my utility company sent this breathtaking comparison for December usage which is basically complaining about me going mostly electric this year (yes, there is a difference in usage shown, but that is because of the "month" they use). Note that when they show "February usage" at the bottom, that is actually January 2023, they actually mean what was billed in February (they bill at the beginning of the month, so I don't have any idea why they make it confusing like that).

In that same email, they suggest ways to save energy - LOL

Sure, to "save energy" I need to add appliances like dehumidifiers and air purifiers. Not to mention, during winter high humidity is the very last worry I have.

It was good for a chuckle anyway :)

Tree Cutting Should Benefit Me

This makes me sad, but at the same time may benefit me. The owner of the lot behind me (a parking lot for the apartments to my northeast side) had some trees cut down yesterday. Since that is to the east of me, my eastern solar array should see a bit of a production hike. Probably not much during the winter, but spring and summer will most likely benefit.

Although I'm not sure that the owner of the property will be happy about the ruts they left from the bucket truck that they had to pull out with a tractor (it's been warm enough the last few days that the frozen upper layer has thawed).

 

A Neighbor Joins in Solar Energy

Last week, as I was closing the shades and curtains of the living room bay window, something caught my eye. Well, look at that, a block away someone had solar installed on the east side of their roof.

I don't know when it happened, but it was recently as I checked their tax card and saw the install had been inspected and approved late October. To be fair, the tree line had lost its leaves fairly recently also, so that may be why it took me so long to notice. Also, there has been so much construction on different houses within hearing (even if not within site), that I would not have noticed any extra noise. AND, it isn't like I keep tabs on anything going on - except at the houses that have been empty as they work on them.

Looks like they have 17 panels, 3 less than my house, but they don't have the same shade issues that I have. I believe that house is actually comprised of a main house and 2-3 apartments, so I would assume that solar array is just for the owner's portion. Actually sort of surprised since electric rates went down quite a bit in August. But rates are so volatile around here, changing every 6 months, and they could double in January for all anyone knows.

I also know that someone further to the south on that street (south is left of the picture) had solar installed last year around the same time as mine was installed. In their case, their roof goes south/north, so it was installed on the south side.

Solar Report for October 2023

October is the transition point of this year. From the end of March on, the west side has outperformed solar generation of each of the other two sides. Technically, the west still outproduced each side, but if all things were equal, the east side would have edged it out.

The west produced 137.2 kwh, the east 119.6 and the south 119.7. This tells us a few things:

1. The trees on the east still have leaves so are hampering production - after all, the south side has 1 less panel than the east side
2. The sun trajectory has changed quite a bit and is now setting more to the southwest.
3. The west side (which is actually WNW) production will soon fall behind the production of the south side. Taking the average panel production of the east side, dividing it by the number of panels, then adding that to the total actual production, the south side would have edged out the west side by about 2 kwh

Again, as it has been since about the beginning of June, October month was extremely cloudy. We didn't get much rain, but dang, I only saw the sun a couple of days during the month. Some days it was dang near dark as can be seen by the days there was very little production (blue is production and orange is total usage).

So depending on how sunny November is (it's not looking good these first 5 days), electrical production probably won't keep up with my usage and I'll start eating into my credits from net metering. Actually, this is a given. On November 1st, I shut off the main floor pellet stove and started using the mini split to heat for the following reasons:

• Electric prices are cheap right now - half what they were this time last year,
• Thusly, I am making squat for overages ($6.18 for October), so there is no reason to try. I "sold" the 134 kwh (net overage) for about $30.00. After non-refundable fees of various types (like being hooked up to a meter at all), I made a total of $6.18
• I have $763 "banked" from the net metering
• Pellet prices are very high this year at $350/ton for the middling stuff that I usually burn. So, although the 4 tons I have were bought 1.5-2 years ago and didn't actually didn't cost me much (probably $800-900), their actual value is at $1,400. I'll save the tonnage that doesn't go into the basement stove for when it is really cold and windy out.

I did start the basement stove up the beginning of last week to keep it in the mid 60's. Of course that is the only heat down there and it also serves to keep the main floor floors warmer. And at this point, it is only firing a couple times a day since the ground isn't very cold yet.

Currently, this year (not counting Nov-Dec of 2022), I have produced about 6.4 mwh. Doesn't look like I'll get to 7 mwh, but that is still an impressive number - especially for the abundance of non-sunny weather we've had the last 6 months.

September 2023 Solar Report

I haven't reported on my solar array production since June of this year (here are all my solar reports). That is because there really wasn't anything new to say, besides, yep, I'm producing power and racking up credits for my winter electrical use from the grid.

September numbers are really showing the reduced sun angle. This reduction is helped (or not helped) by the trees still having leaves. So the east side is really challenged in getting much sun prior to noon or so.

And then we've had a lot of heavily overcast days. Several days solar production (orange) didn't even match the house usage (blue).

Solar energy production is roughly 60% of what May's production was (my best month). And it is 200 kwh less than the August production. HOWEVER, perception is everything. In looking back at March (6 months previous), then the numbers align pretty well

Although the comparison does show a bit of drop of production on the east and south sides for the month from tree foliage, the west side (being totally clear of any shade) makes up for it. So in actuality, 20kwh more were produced in September than last March. However, I did have several days in March that were zero production because of snow cover (not atypical) and a 3-day power outage (which was atypical - although the array was still snow covered anyway). During a power outage, when grid-tied, the production is cut off to avoid feedback into the power lines.

So, really, compared to March, I can't be unhappy with the September energy production from the array. And, I'm still banking credits with the power company, which definitely makes me happy.

How's that Forcast Working Out for You?

I find this somewhat funny. I'm not a climate change denier. I just happen to think that climate changes all the time all by itself. There are a lot of factors involved, including those outside of Earth's atmosphere - and most of those factors we don't even understand on an individual scope. I don't doubt that mankind affects the climate to a degree, but to what degree and how we would go about reversing it (or if it is worth it in socio/economic sense) is a different animal.

So anyway, this post isn't to debate climate change (and I won't, so please don't bother commenting if you just want to argue your position). This post is about how difficult it is to actually predict what is going to happen in the near term (relatively speaking). The other day the local weather guy was telling us how NH has had a fairly cool summer. One point in case is that we haven't had a day over 90 yet this August, which is unusual (sorry, you have to watch a short ad to see the video).

We have had a very wet, dark summer. that has kept the solar gain to a minimum (ask my solar array - the peak performance was in May, before this weather pattern got stuck in place). Anyway, I happened to run into this forecast put out by NOAA (thru NPR) in May

 

They completely missed the mark for New England (or at least northern New England - IDK about the southern portion). They may have expected the jet stream to act one way, and it acted differently. They may have been going off of ocean temperatures at the time - IIRC, the coastal waters off NH were way warmer than normal in May (average is in high 40's and I think it was in the high 50's at the time).

Although production from my solar arrays has not been as good as expected after seeing May's numbers, I am happy that NOAAs prediction for this area was off. I haven't run the mini split much, which offsets the reduction in energy production. I am still exporting plenty of power - except this past Friday, I actually used more than I made because I had to use the clothes drier a couple of times.

Getting Paid for Solar Production

Two weeks ago I got an email that was pleasing, I was getting paid $27 for just doing what I have been doing.

When I had the solar array installed, I had no clue about RECs (Renewable Energy Certificates). Fortunately, my install company applied for entry in a REC program for me. The installing company let me know I would be hearing from the REC company at the end of last year. I did not have to accept, indeed, had to actively pursue the opportunity once the REC company provided the info to me.

RECs are a method of tracking each MWh produced by solar/wind (or other renewable source) and pushed to the grid. Some areas have requirement for the grid to provide x percent of renewable energy thru their grid (an over simplification). That also means the producer (me) has to be vetted and tracked by the government, so if you aren't good with that, then the program is not for you. I had to apply for and become a certified solar facility, with a cert from the Department of Energy. The REC company I am going thru did everything but sign the paperwork that they submitted. It also means that if I make any changes, even put in a grid tied battery backup, or add to the system I have to notify the DOE.

Tracking by the REC company is done thru my solar monitoring company, which I had to give authorization for the REC company to have access to. But once all the paperwork is done, it is totally hands off for me. Payments (in increments of whole MWhs) are made each quarter and I will have to pay taxes on the payments received. But since I can't see making more than $100/year (if that), the taxes won't be onerous.