I find this somewhat funny. I'm not a climate change denier. I just happen to think that climate changes all the time all by itself. There are a lot of factors involved, including those outside of Earth's atmosphere - and most of those factors we don't even understand on an individual scope. I don't doubt that mankind affects the climate to a degree, but to what degree and how we would go about reversing it (or if it is worth it in socio/economic sense) is a different animal.
So anyway, this post isn't to debate climate change (and I won't, so please don't bother commenting if you just want to argue your position). This post is about how difficult it is to actually predict what is going to happen in the near term (relatively speaking). The other day the local weather guy was telling us how NH has had a fairly cool summer. One point in case is that we haven't had a day over 90 yet this August, which is unusual (sorry, you have to watch a short ad to see the video).
We have had a very wet, dark summer. that has kept the solar gain to a minimum (ask my solar array - the peak performance was in May, before this weather pattern got stuck in place). Anyway, I happened to run into this forecast put out by NOAA (thru NPR) in May
They completely missed the mark for New England (or at least northern New England - IDK about the southern portion). They may have expected the jet stream to act one way, and it acted differently. They may have been going off of ocean temperatures at the time - IIRC, the coastal waters off NH were way warmer than normal in May (average is in high 40's and I think it was in the high 50's at the time).
Although production from my solar arrays has not been as good as expected after seeing May's numbers, I am happy that NOAAs prediction for this area was off. I haven't run the mini split much, which offsets the reduction in energy production. I am still exporting plenty of power - except this past Friday, I actually used more than I made because I had to use the clothes drier a couple of times.
Comments